John Jaeckel: Trade Deadline: “Don’t Expect Much”

First

All I want at the deadline is a veteran defenseman who is just a step faster than Rozi. I think that a pick and a mid level prospect could get us that. Otherwise, I like this team.

The suspence is killing me C'Mon Stan get it done!
BTW second..lol

You said: The problem is, the rest of the league’s GMs know exactly the position Bowman’s in—and no one’s bending over backwards to give the Hawks a favorable deal. This is what I was told by my top source this morning.

Under any circumstances, why would they try to give the Hawks a favorable deal - or deny them one if it benefitted their team? The rest of the GMs are looking out for their own skins - if a deal helps them, they'll do it, even if it helps the other party; if it doesn't they won't. The situation of their trading partner probably doesn't enter into it. What GM would say, This is a good deal for my team, but because of the situation the Hawks are in, I'm not going to do it - that'll teach 'em!


You said: I ask you, readers (and Hawk fans, most of you anyway), how happy will you be, how happy will your fellow fans be, if the Hawks bow out in the first or second round this year, and then roll out a team without $5-10 million in veteran salaries, and therefore featuring 3-4 rookies or near-rookies in key roles?


Seems to me, that's likely to happen anyways - you're going to have to move rostered money equaling any money coming back - same cap problems next year whether you make the move or not - same 3-4 rookies in the line-up next year. If the deal makes sense for THIS year, might as well do it.

You said: My point in all this? There could be a much greater risk in standing pat than in stepping up and even overpaying slightly for some veteran help right now. The Hawks just won’t have to deal with the downside for another couple of years—when the real second guessing might take place.
The argument against not “trading away the future” gets trotted out at this time every year. But what exactly is the future?


Exactly. Win the only Cup you have a chance of winning this year - let next year worry about itself, ESPECIALLY if it's very possible (if not probable or likely) to be a cap-induced partial rebuild.

Well if the HAWKS bow out in the 1st or 2nd Rd. this year so be it . It really is a bit of a crap shoot in the west anyway . Hang on two your prospects and Picks , get more dealing big contracts .Build through the draft and get back there as soon as you can it's been a great ride . All the teams that are floundering are going look we have to do a rebuild .Build through the draft ,HAWKS are on that track already why change . And I for one believe the HAWKS were more like a couple really suspect calls away from the final last year sour grapes be dammed It's a top draft this year try and get another 1rd. if possible at the draft and make some cap room . GO HAWKS GO

Year after year, decade after decade, the promise of prospects always seems to exceed what they eventually become.

Great write up, JJ. I don't feel like the Blackhawks should be overly concerned with trading of prospects and picks to win NOW so long as they are able to get many of those prospects and picks back in the up coming cap-exodus of Sharp, Bickell, Shaw, etc. and other roster players.

Totally agree on TT. He's not close to ready and this means the Hawks will need another 2C next year. Not only this but TT profiles as another type of player that we already have plenty of and should be offered in exchange for a young controllable power forward/quality dman.

Guys like Winnik, the D-men you mentioned, Jiri Tlusty should be added. Also look to add a guy Matthew Beleksey(injured and currently a duck) in the off season(good upside and value).

Just for perspective sake, re: "don't trade away the future", 12 years of the future:

1998 Mark Bell 8th overall OK 3rd line player
1999 Steve McCarthy 23rd overall 55 points in 302 NHL games
2000 Mikhail Yakubov 10th overall 40 NHL games BUST
2000 Pavel Vorobiev 11th overall 57 NHL games BUST
2001 Tuomo Ruutu 9th overall OK top 6 forward
2001 Adam Munro 29th overall 17 NHL games BUST
2002 Anton Babchuk 21st overall OK 4-5 defenseman
2003 Brent Seabrook 14th overall NHL All Star HIT
2004 Cam Barker 3rd overall fringe NHL player BUST
2005 Jack Skille 7th overall 4th line journeyman BUST
2006 Jonathan Toews 3rd overall Franchise player HIT
2007 Patrick Kane 1st overall Elite player HIT
2008 Kyle Beach 11th overall 0 NHL games BUST
2009 Dylan Olsen 28th overall In AHL, fringe NHLer BUST?
2010 Kevin Hayes 24th overall Rangers, decent rookie yr HIT

You said: The problem is, the rest of the league’s GMs know exactly the position Bowman’s in—and no one’s bending over backwards to give the Hawks a favorable deal. This is what I was told by my top source this morning.

Under any circumstances, why would they try to give the Hawks a favorable deal - or deny them one if it benefitted their team? The rest of the GMs are looking out for their own skins - if a deal helps them, they'll do it, even if it helps the other party; if it doesn't they won't. The situation of their trading partner probably doesn't enter into it. What GM would say, This is a good deal for my team, but because of the situation the Hawks are in, I'm not going to do it - that'll teach 'em!


You said: I ask you, readers (and Hawk fans, most of you anyway), how happy will you be, how happy will your fellow fans be, if the Hawks bow out in the first or second round this year, and then roll out a team without $5-10 million in veteran salaries, and therefore featuring 3-4 rookies or near-rookies in key roles?


Seems to me, that's likely to happen anyways - you're going to have to move rostered money equaling any money coming back - same cap problems next year whether you make the move or not - same 3-4 rookies in the line-up next year. If the deal makes sense for THIS year, might as well do it.

You said: My point in all this? There could be a much greater risk in standing pat than in stepping up and even overpaying slightly for some veteran help right now. The Hawks just won’t have to deal with the downside for another couple of years—when the real second guessing might take place.
The argument against not “trading away the future” gets trotted out at this time every year. But what exactly is the future?


Exactly. Win the only Cup you have a chance of winning this year - let next year worry about itself, ESPECIALLY if it's very possible (if not probable or likely) to be a cap-induced partial rebuild.
- StLBravesFan

Don't worry about a long rebuild - the KHL is going broke and the President wants to cut the $17M salary cap in half. Lots of players will be available

Stanley probably has boots on the ground over there now. Radulov will probably be our #2C playing for $600K/year and a case of Vodka a week.

Don't worry about a long rebuild - the KHL is going broke and the President wants to cut the $17M salary cap in half. Lots of players will be available

Stanley probably has boots on the ground over there now. Radulov will probably be our #2C playing for $600K/year and a case of Vodka a week.
- RickJ

Can Igor, Yak and Rad be far behind?

Don't worry about a long rebuild - the KHL is going broke and the President wants to cut the $17M salary cap in half. Lots of players will be available

Stanley probably has boots on the ground over there now. Radulov will probably be our #2C playing for $600K/year and a case of Vodka a week.
- RickJ

Please....no.

Can Igor, Yak and Rad be far behind?
- John Jaeckel

You forgot the original old vodka tit himself, Khabibulin.

RE: your statement that they have "come back to the pack" this year.

-
2013-14 through 57 games: 33-10-14 (80 points)
2014-15 through 57 games: 35-18-4 (74 points)

Two more wins, with six less points because of losing several more games in regulation as opposed to OT.

-
2013-14 through 57 games: +42 goal differential (+0.73 GPG)
2014-15 through 57 games: +41 goal differential (+0.72 GPG)

A statistical wash.

-
2013-14 through 57 games: 2.77 GAA
2014-15 through 57 games: 2.26 GAA

A massive improvement.

-
2013-14 Corsi-For (couldn't find in-season sats): 55.3%
2014-15 Corsi-For through 57 games: 56.3%

An improvement.

-
If we are arguing that last year's team was a legitimate Cup contender, which they clearly were given their making it to OT of Game 7 of the Western Conference Final, and we acknowledge that defense (as measured by GAA), possession (as measured by Corsi and its various offshoots), and goal differential are predictors of playoff success, I find it hard to believe that a team with massively improved defensive numbers, improved possession numbers, and the same goal differential, has "come back to the pack" or regressed in any significant way.

And yes, before you say it, I do watch the game. I go to upwards of 75 games a year and watch NHL, AHL, KHL and European hockey on a regular basis. Citing numbers does not preclude a person from also "watching the game."

Can Igor, Yak and Rad be far behind?
- John Jaeckel

Even better than that - Iron Mike Keenan will be on his way back soon and Stanbo can finally fire that idiot Q.

The problem is there are few defense men available and too many teams seeking them. When you add the fact we are up against the cap, our options are very limited.

This is what happens when you get sentimental about your roster.

They should have made the necessary hard decisions last summer to put them in a position to not have to panic after this year or make a trade if necessary at the deadline.

Cap genius may or may not have painted himself into another corner.

Whatever.

As long as Hossa is healthy and Kane is doing playoff Kane things then they have a shot I guess. They'll just have to rely on their stars being stars rather than their depth which is what it is at this point. Also, Crawford playing out of his mind.

You'd like to see TT figure out how to be a pro before getting leaned on heavily. Johns is at least a man physically though has been hampered by injuries. Danault and McNeil are only 21. Eh.

Next year is gonna be a show.

And I would disagree that a huge part of this years problems are strictly player related. Being able to exit the zone effectively because other teams are onto them and the Hawks haven't done what is necessary to adjust is not helpful, especially for aging players.

That is a big big big big problem to me and happens no matter who is on the ice (when talking replacement level players especially).

Whatever happens, I just hope Bowman lets go of the #86 2nd line C fantasy. He makes Kane look big. TT has some skill, but this team really needs to find a way to fill that #2 C hole. Dont know how many cheapo contracts 91 wants to take, but his has lotzo mileage and maybe has another 2 years left. Add to that cap problems and it could see a Rockford line up for good next year. Next year could be a struggle with 10, 29 and maybe another on the way out. But that gives Danault, Hartman, McNeil etc. time to settle in and work the kinks out.

Agree with JJ that standing pat may not be the best thing to do. Prospects will always be a coin toss. Some D help is an obvious need. Guess we will see..

This is what happens when you get sentimental about your roster.

They should have made the necessary hard decisions last summer to put them in a position to not have to panic after this year or make a trade if necessary at the deadline.

Cap genius may or may not have painted himself into another corner.

Whatever.

As long as Hossa is healthy and Kane is doing playoff Kane things then they have a shot I guess. They'll just have to rely on their stars being stars rather than their depth which is what it is at this point. Also, Crawford playing out of his mind.

You'd like to see TT figure out how to be a pro before getting leaned on heavily. Johns is at least a man physically though has been hampered by injuries. Danault and McNeil are only 21. Eh.

Next year is gonna be a show.
- fattybeef

This! And on top of it you cant make any further moves to bring in more than a this season fix because you have to pay wonder boy(saad) at the end of the season. We can all speculate, but idk if anyone has noticed, but he will cost money and a nice amount and he cant produce consistently on any other line but the one with 19-81. Yes, he is Stan's guy, but if he brings in a legitimate number two center for half of Kanes new 10 year deal, you do it. Because at the end of the day, he will not be a guy that carries your team to a cup like a 19 or 88 can. Just my 2cents, but if he is a package deal with Sharp, we can get the guy we need upfront and maybe another big body for the bottom six.

Just for perspective sake, re: "don't trade away the future", 12 years of the future:

1998 Mark Bell 8th overall OK 3rd line player
1999 Steve McCarthy 23rd overall 55 points in 302 NHL games
2000 Mikhail Yakubov 10th overall 40 NHL games BUST
2000 Pavel Vorobiev 11th overall 57 NHL games BUST
2001 Tuomo Ruutu 9th overall OK top 6 forward
2001 Adam Munro 29th overall 17 NHL games BUST
2002 Anton Babchuk 21st overall OK 4-5 defenseman
2003 Brent Seabrook 14th overall NHL All Star HIT
2004 Cam Barker 3rd overall fringe NHL player BUST
2005 Jack Skille 7th overall 4th line journeyman BUST
2006 Jonathan Toews 3rd overall Franchise player HIT
2007 Patrick Kane 1st overall Elite player HIT
2008 Kyle Beach 11th overall 0 NHL games BUST
2009 Dylan Olsen 28th overall In AHL, fringe NHLer BUST?
2010 Kevin Hayes 24th overall Rangers, decent rookie yr HIT
- John Jaeckel

Hurts seeing it in print!!!

JJ, do you think with the start of spring-training (and all the positive moves the Chicago baseball teams made over the winter) will have McD on hightened alert to the teams media coverage? If the Blackhawks become 3rd or 4th place story, will he force a move just to get press?

We'll be saying what the evidence presents. Stan Bowman continues to not be able to, or not be allowed to, make any sort of medium to major changes to the Hawks via trade. There are multiple players on this squad who could be moved and not be missed. Shaw, Bickell, Oduya, Roszival. Question is does anybody else want 'em? Shaw maybe? The rest, meh... And I'm guessing other teams aren't much interested in Hawks prospects. There isn't one prospect I would lose sleep over if they were traded, including TT.

This! And on top of it you cant make any further moves to bring in more than a this season fix because you have to pay wonder boy(saad) at the end of the season. We can all speculate, but idk if anyone has noticed, but he will cost money and a nice amount and he cant produce consistently on any other line but the one with 19-81. Yes, he is Stan's guy, but if he brings in a legitimate number two center for half of Kanes new 10 year deal, you do it. Because at the end of the day, he will not be a guy that carries your team to a cup like a 19 or 88 can. Just my 2cents, but if he is a package deal with Sharp, we can get the guy we need upfront and maybe another big body for the bottom six.
- nickmo2699

Yes. Especially now that Kane has been locked up then I feel like TT is expendable as they are similar players. Obviously Kane is in a class of his own.

There are teams that would certainly covet TT for his youth, playmaking skills, and enormous upside.

If I were Bowman then I would package one of my bigger salaried players with TT to getch a better return. IE: TT and Sharp to NYI for Nielsen and Lee(or something of that variety).

Excellent blog.

Sports follow a natural ebb and flow where teams go into peaks and valleys and the writing is on the wall for this team to hit a valley given the factors. The top guys are still great, but that won't be enough next year as the Hawks will have to resort to rolling in kids, prospects, bargain bin players, and fringe NHLers on the cheap to fill out the roster (which is what they WILL have to do).

In about 2-3 years I think things will balance out. The Hawks salary structure will (hopefully) come into line with the salary cap as the cap will (presumably) go up significantly in that time frame. Additionally, those 2-3 years will be used culling the herd, figuring out WHICH ballyhooed prospects are LEGIT and which ones are all hype. Then the ones who are legit will still need time (even the brilliance of Toews and Kane and a large part of the core of 2010 didn't get the Hawks into the show in 2008 so it takes time).

This combination of salary 'adjustment' and prospect mining (not to mention champion players going through a period of "losing" which will further motivate them) will give the Hawks another (albeit smaller) window as the core of the team begins pushing 30 (Kane, Toews), or on the downside of 30 (Seabs, Duncs) or 40 (Hossa).

Anyone who thinks the Super-2, our core 5 or 6 guys and a collection of kids and castoffs is a recipe for anything other than a fringe playoff team at best is delusional and is setting themselves up for great disappointment.